Negotiations continue between Western and Russian diplomats

By Simon C.

February 11, 2022

Negotiations continue between Western and Russian diplomats

In December of 2021, Russia was in the process of stationing thousands of troops at its west-facing border with Ukraine. By January of 2022, they had amassed more than 100,000 troops, and talks between NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and Russia were called. Moscow views the West as having armed Ukraine against them and similarly wants the US to remove troops and weapons from the Eastern European countries that joined NATO after 1997—including the Baltic states—Moscow wants a guarantee that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO, and for the US to remove all the nuclear weapons stationed in Europe. Those demands have been ones which the US and NATO rejected, and talks have amounted to little so far; however, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated a willingness in early February for more talks.

Through the middle of January to early February, Western intelligence reports have said that Russia planned to run “false-flag operations” to create a pretense for invasion or to make Ukraine more favorable to it—which Russia denies. On January 14th, the White House announced an intelligence finding that Russia had been stirring misinformation on social media about Ukraine being an aggressor and that Russia was planning a false-flag operation. On January 23rd, the UK Foreign Office reported that Russia also planned to install a pro-Russia government in Ukraine and named specific Ukranians who Russia would use. Then again on February 3rd, the US accused Russia of planning a false-flag operation.

The US, meanwhile, is positioned to deal massive economic damage to Russia if it invades Ukraine—either via cutting Russia off from completing transactions in US Dollars, sanctioning Russian oligarchs, to imposing export controls on modern technology. Militarily, the US does not plan to deploy combat troops to fight Russia in the event of a Ukraine invasion (however, President Biden moved 2000 US-based troops into Poland and Germany and moved 1000 troops in Germany to Romania, NATO allies)—instead, there are US troops present in Ukraine which are training and advising local Ukrainian forces. Additionally, $2.5B in defense assistance has been provided to Ukraine since 2014.

On February 10th, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that “the number of Russian forces is going up, the warning time for a possible attack is going down.” What is certain, however, is that February will be a crucial month for NATO to manage what UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson calls “the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades.”