Infrastructure & Biden’s Domestic Agenda

By Simon C.

December 17, 2021

Biden and the Democrats’ two-bill infrastructure and social policy saga has been in the news for over six months, and Democrats are uncertain as to exactly how much of their infrastructure and social spending goals will be completed. We kept track of the story over the last two and a half months, and are here to report the ups and downs of infrastructure for Democrats since the start of fall:

In late September, President Joe Biden was “working the phones” to get his party on board with their two-track plan: passing the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework (BIF) and the Build Back Better Act (BBB). They were then slated to deliver $3.5 trillion and $550 billion in new spending, respectively, with the former being spread out over 10 years (and had already passed the Senate in mid-August). While the latter BIF proposal contained $550 billion in new spending, it totaled $1 trillion with other spending, so both numbers are different ways of referring to the same BIF.

Until late October, moderate and progressive Dems were perpetually deadlocked in negotiations where the passage of the bills always seemed so near, yet always so far away. Negotiations on the 1st of October ended inconclusively after Biden privately met with Democrats and called for consensus. Around the 12th of October, Dems had to start considering ways to slim the $3.5 trillion plan down to $2 trillion in the face of needing to secure the votes of Senators Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz) and Joe Manchin (D-WVa), respectively. Every Republican opposes Dems’ megabill, so as Democrats control the Senate by a 50-50 margin with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie, they need every single vote. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, sided with Dem moderates in agreeing that the better way to bring the price down would be to have fewer programs, but ones that would last 10 years in length and be well-funded. When Senator Manchin opposed the clean electricity program in the bill, Democrats started considering a tax on carbon emissions to be the major climate component of their megabill instead—before Manchin rejected that too—and their self-imposed October 31st deadline approached further.

Then, in a late October private meeting, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt) and Manchin had a private blowup and a subsequent public reconciliation, which appeared to help unstick the logjamed mood. Negotiating with Senator Sinema, President Biden got closer to a deal, and by the 2nd of November, they had reached a prescription drug pricing deal and negotiations with her were essentially complete, but as Democrats ran over their October 31st deadline with no bills passed yet, another thing loomed at the start of November.

The Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections were held on November 2nd, and in Virginia, Republicans swept the offices of governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general by margins of R+0.8 to R+1.9 and flipped the House of Delegates—a state Biden carried in 2020 by a margin of D+10. In New Jersey, Democrats held their trifecta, but by uncomfortably close margins. While it is a historical macro trend for the opposition party to do well in midterm elections, the loss compelled Democrats to push through legislation—and by November 5th, the House passed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework by a 228-206 margin, sending it to Biden’s desk, where he signed it on the 15th. That bill provides funding for road and bridge repair, public transport, the electric grid and electric vehicles, internet access for rural areas, airports, and water infrastructure.

Negotiations were not over, however, and moderate Dems in the House still wanted cost estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office as to whether or not the bill would sufficiently pay for itself. Meanwhile, Manchin and Democrats disagreed over whether or not to include four weeks of family paid leave—trimmed down from the initial 12 weeks—in the Build Back Better bill. On November 18th, the CBO said that the BBB as it stood in the house would add $160 billion to the deficit over a 10-year span—a deviation from White House statements saying that the bill would fully pay for itself—and House Democrats passed the then-$1.7 trillion bill the following day, where its fate awaited—and still awaits—in the Senate.

So far this December, the disagreement over whether or not to include paid family leave has continued, with Manchin wanting to have a separate, bipartisan legislation enacting it—which recent drafts of the bill have not excluded, but may in the future. Recent rises in inflation—to 6.2% in October and 6.8% in November—have raised concerns from Senator Manchin and Republicans, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) saying that “the average American has gotten a pay cut” as a result of inflation. According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, however, the relatively small size in per-year stimulus from Dems’ megabill would have a mild inflationary impact. Joe Manchin and Joe Biden have continued to meet for negotiations over the BBB in face of another self-imposed Christmas deadline, though Manchin takes issue with the fact that some programs expire after only a year, and that their cost must be factored in with the expectation that they will be extended. Talks will continue “over the days and weeks ahead,” President Biden said, but as Democrats approach Christmas, it becomes increasingly likely that passage of any bill will need to be rolled over into January, 2022. The Senate parliamentarian has also decided that immigration law changes may not be included in the bill because it violates the Senate’s budgetary reconciliation rules—though Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said that Democrats would attempt to “pursue every means” to include it.

After months of negotiations with hopeful and helpless moments for Democrats, they must continue negotiations further and may need to wait until after the Christmas break—short of a surprise deal—before their signature social and environmental legislation passes the Senate—and then returns to the House for final Congressional approval.